Saturday, July 12, 2008

If everyone follows the script, war will serve certain domestic interests

here is a different (and more thorough) analysis of the recent Iranian missle tests.

this analysis suggests, as I wish more would, that provocative displays of military force and claims of dangerous weapons development are more about domestic consumption than anything else.

It sounds like a script. The Iranian president who won his closely contested election playing on the problems of the regular Iranian people.... well, he has done nothing. So, he and the mullahs need to do something to distract from those issues as well as send messages to the people that they are beyond challenge. To me not much different that Saddam's WMDs. He had to keep the illusion in order to maintain power at home.

So, Iran's internal politics leads to more bellicose rantings toward Israel. Israel, on cue, responds with military training which could be s rehearsal for a strike against Iran. On cue, Iran fires off missiles, which our intelligence suggets demonstrates no additional capability and some faked pictures to suggest more capability than they have.

The "Great Satan" (what the extremists in Iran call the US), then on cue begin sabre rattling, all for Iranian domestic consumption.

Now, when the missile tests occurred, the Bush administration, especially Secretary Rice used it as an excuse to call for the missile shield in Europe and Georgia...all of which irritated the Russians who oppose the defensive missiles. McCain was ready to launch the invasion now. Obama, however, his response was to wait until the intelligence anaylsis shows if Iran has shown additional military capacity (which in the end, it didn't, and as this article suggets may actually show weakness). So, on the matter of judgement...who is showing the best judgement? Sen. McCain or Sen Obama? Who is eager to play the role being orchestrated by our enemies? More bellicose threats from the US actually serve the interests of the extremists in Iran. But what domestic interests does such bellicose respones here serve domestically?

The diplomatic pressure, however, looks like it is beginning to work on Iran.

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