Pandemic projection numbers tell unnerving story

Previously published in the Terre Haute Tribune Star, 29 March 

What if we just let the people with the highest risk die from COVID-19, as some appear to be suggesting?

Apparently even a cost-benefit analysis is nearly impossible because those most at risk already have “shorter” life spans and/or have underlying health issues that would just kill them eventually anyway. So, estimating what Grandma’s life is worth is hard. Not like other commodities such as cars, homes, airline seats and so forth. But, is Grandma a “commodity?”

About 16 percent of the United States population is age 65 or older. This is the group at the greatest risk of dying from COVID-19. And, so far, it appears that this age group is both more likely to get infected (although this is a weak claim since we are not doing enough testing to say this with much confidence) and to die from COVID-19. The CDC, last week, reported that 80 percent of the deaths were among people 65 and older. So, let’s just use that number for now.

As I write this, there are 64,107 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 893 deaths in the US. [The number of confirmed cases had grown to well over 80,000 by week's end. — Ed.) That’s a 1.4 percent death rate. More than 10 times what the death rate from the seasonal flu is. And if the 80 percent of deaths are among those 65 and older, then 714 of those dead are 65 and older.

How many Americans are going to get COVID-19? That is impossible to say, but we can model it for some ideas. Predictions range, depending on the measures being used, that between 40 and 70 percent of Americans will become infected. Let’s use the most optimistic number, 40 percent, and assume that all age groups will get infected at about the same proportion. Forty percent of the U.S. population is 127,399,400 people. If that were a nation, it would be the 11th largest nation on Earth, slotting in between Mexico and Japan.

If the 1.4 percent death rate holds, then 1,783,591 people will die; 80 percent of them will be 65 or older, or 1,426,873, about the population of New Hampshire. Currently there are 51,121,200 Americans age 65 and older. If that many die, that is a death rate of 2.8% or about 28 times that of the seasonal flu. 24,672,708 households in the US have an individual 65 years and older. Among those households 5.7 percent will experience a death.

That’s a lot of families experiencing death in a short period of time. In 2017, 2,067,404 persons 65 and above died in the United States. Of course, some of those 1.4 million projected to die would die in the next few months anyway, but just consider that it’s possible that the death rate for this age group could increase by more than half.

Which states have the highest numbers of persons age 65+? Puerto Rico, West Virginia, Vermont, Maine, and Florida have at least 20 percent age 65+. Alaska, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, and Utah have below 15 percent. Indiana is at 16 percent. For Vigo County, 16.3 percent, or 17,504, are 65 and above. Using the same analysis above, 4,811 age 65 and above will die. That is just under 4.5 percent of the Vigo County population, or just under 1 per 20. That means you will very likely know someone who dies from COVID-19. Do you know anyone who has died of the flu this year?

So, let’s put some money on these numbers. The average Social Security benefit in January 2020 was $1,503 per month, or $18,036 per year. In a very short time period, Vigo County could lose just under $315 million in income. Mean household income in Vigo County is $42,030 or $1.8 billion in income per year. This would be a loss of almost 17.5 percent of income coming into Vigo County.

When you think of the loss of demand for local businesses that would represent, it’s quite a hit. And this is the best scenario. If the infection rate is 70 percent, then it’s a hit of about 30.6 percent on the local economy in just a matter of a few months.

Unlike jobs lost in a recession, of which most eventually do come back, those people are not coming back.