previously published in the Terre Haute Tribune-Star, 28 August 2021
Early results of the 2020 Census are out. One headline trumpets U.S. population grew at its slowest rate since the Great Depression. Many pundits see this as a bad thing because population growth is believed tied to economic growth. Yet, the economy was doing well in the 2010s, until 2020 (Covid). The Dow was 10583.96 at the beginning of the decade and ended at 28.534.44.
The population growth rate between 1930 and 1940 and between 2010 and 2020 are about the same, 7.3%. In real numbers, the U.S. grew by just under 9 million people in the 1930s; in the 2010s, the population grew by 22.7 million people, a total that is 255% more than in the 1930s. So, yes, the rates are similar but the actual new population is much greater. I took these numbers from a New York Times article titled, “Population Bust.” If those new people were their own country, they would be the 58th most populous country in the world. Some bust.
Another headline trumpets U.S. becoming more racially and ethnically diverse and (quieter) that for the first time in U.S. history, the number of non-Hispanic white folks declined. They declined by 5 million. So, let’s connect the population “bust” (an increase of 22 million people) to the decline of people who identify as “white.”
Why has the population growth rate declined? Most important reason is the birthrate. The native birthrate is down, it’s down 50% since the end of the baby boom (early 1960s) and down 17% since 1990. Why? Women have more options today than even in the 1990s, and world-wide we see that educated and employed women have fewer kids. Our society is not very mom friendly meaning people respond to economics (not always the way economists think they “should” but they do) and while many moms indicate they would like to have more kids, they also calculate they cannot afford it. A second factor is a decline in legal immigration. This is a double whammy, because legal immigrants often have children whereas illegal immigrants often do not.
Why has the absolute number of whites declined? Low birth rates and lower immigration from Europe. The droves of European immigration in the past, people looking for a better life, is no longer a push factor. Indeed, Europeans today view the U.S. as a somewhat backward country. As American women overall have become more educated and are more likely to be in the workforce, it’s white women who have benefitted the most from these trends; the more educated and the more financially secure, the fewer children those women have. This is not just an American phenomenon, it's worldwide.
How will conservatives and liberals view these trends? Conservatives will not like that population growth is down (because they believe that hurts economic growth) and that whites have failed to even replace themselves. This will give more voice to the extreme rightwing racists who promote “replacement theory.” Liberals will like the reduction in population growth because that suggests less pressure on the environment. Liberals will point to the lack of societal support for motherhood as to why the birthrate falls, probably not saying too much about that the most educated and higher paid (white) women are the ones opting to not have (as many) children.
Conservatives favor the lower levels of immigration but not because it raises wages among the working class (as labor supplies tighten). Liberals will like the latter but not necessarily the former. The tighter labor market is also likely to reduce income inequality, a liberal goal.
Polls suggest that Americans want to have more children, but kids are expensive, especially child care. Letting the market work its magic isn’t working. Will tax credits do it? I don’t think so because they do not lower the price of child care. Tax credits might actually have the opposite effect.
The lack of paid parental leave from work is another barrier to having more kids. We are the only major industrial country that doesn’t have such a policy. However, those countries are seeing low (even lower) birthrates than the U.S. So, mandating paid leave isn’t necessarily the solution. Unlike Europe, we can absorb a lot more immigrants, but that is toxic for discussion unless it’s only immigration of people like the shrinking majority whites.
Twitter and sound bite politics make the kind of discussion we need nearly impossible. There is a severe shortage of actual, respectful, productive dialogue.
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