Sunday, February 18, 2018

Secularization in America? Not so fast

Previously published in the Terre Haute Tribune-Star, 18 February 2018

Is America becoming secular like the rest of the western industrialized world? Most scholars of this topic would say yes as well as, I think, most people would. A recently published paper, using the same data that others have used to conclude that secularization is occurring, comes to a different conclusion.
People vary in their commitment to things, whether it be politics, being a fan of a sports team, a volunteer in the community or religion. Scholars generally divide people into three broad groups based on their religious commitment: little to no commitment/practice (the secular); moderate; and intense. How these categories are specifically defined may differ by study, but generally they show the same thing. Other western industrial countries show an average reduction in the proportion of religious practitioners as well as intensity. This seemed to be the case for the United States as well, until Professors Schnabel and Bock published their article last November (www.sociologicalscience.com/download/vol- /november/SocSci_v4_686to700.pdf).
They disaggregated, meaning break out different groups from the whole, the “not religious,” the moderately religious, and the most intensely religious. While it is true that when aggregated it does appear that Americans are becoming more secular, as the cliché goes, the devil is in the details.
Periodic U.S. data from 1989 to 2016 shows an increase in the proportion of no affiliation with religion, from just under 10 percent to 20 percent. Among those with moderate affiliation, a decline from about 57 to about 42 percent. But among the intensely affiliated, virtually no change from 1989 to 2016 at about 38 percent. These trends suggest that “secularization” is occurring among the moderately affiliated only. The intensely affiliated seem unaffected.
Church attendance shows a similar pattern. There is a drop in sometime church attendance of about 6 percentage points and an uptick in never attend of the same with those who attend multiple times per week holding steady at about 9 percent.
A similar pattern holds for one’s view of the Bible, a steady third view the Bible as the literal work of God, while those who view it as inspired by God but not literal declined by about 5 percentage points and those who view the Bible as a book of fables, increased by 5 percentage points.
Examining prayer, however, shows a different but revealing pattern. Those who do not pray or pray once a week or less are remaining steady at about 22 percent, but those who pray sometimes have dropped from about 52 percent to 48 percent. However, those who pray multiple times a day has increased from about 22 to about 30 percent. This suggests that the movement in praying is from sometimes to multiple times a day, not to less praying.
The authors conclude, contrary to most others, that America is an exception to the otherwise secularizing trends found in other western industrial countries. While the authors admit that it would be possible to just call this an American path to secularization, they prefer to conclude that America is becoming increasingly polarized religiously between the intensely religious and the (more) secular.
The authors argue that this is happening due to the increasing politicization of religion, especially among the most intensely religious. This has turned off the moderately religious, a form of backlash to the increasing politicization. Ultimately, the authors conclude: "… although religion is simply becoming less salient in other societies, it remains important in the public sphere and central to cultural divides in the United States. Therefore, rather than following the pattern we would expect on the basis of the secularization thesis, American religion remains persistently and exceptionally intense."
An implication of this research is that although the portion of the U.S. that is intensely religious has remained constant, in order to do so means that their absolute numbers are growing. The U.S. population has grown by more than 76 million people during the study period (1989-2016). If the intensely religious amount to about 38 percent of the U.S. population, then they have grown by almost 29 million over that period. That is 29 million highly likely conservative voters.
With the growing secularization of the rest of the population, we may find that the intensely religious do find themselves to be a minority in an otherwise secular nation. How will an otherwise secular nation view and treat the significant (and probably more politically powerful than their numbers would otherwise suggest) intensely religious?
Thomas L. Steiger is a professor of sociology and director of the Center for Student Research and Creativity at Indiana State University. Email thomas.steiger@indstate.edu.
Blog Directory - Blogged The Steiger Counter at Blogged